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You want to be on the safe side with your company, use an advertising-free and therefore faster website, as well as a number of additional features, such as animations of the model cards, GIF downloads and player function in the archive, then commercially this package is right for you. Ensembles are produced by running the same weather models many different times with slightly varying initial conditions. Any small error in the weather model initially due to this gap in observation is compounded exponentially out through time due to chaos.
Ensembles attempt to fix this problem by starting the model with a bunch of ideas of what the atmosphere could be doing right now. Each one of these ideas will create its own outcome, known as an ensemble member. Ensembles are a great tool for gauging uncertainty in a forecast. If all, or almost all, the ensemble members agree on a particular outcome, you can have high confidence that that outcome will occur. Different ensemble systems have different numbers of ensemble members and the more ensemble members there are, the better the forecast will be as it will take into account a wider range of possibilities.
Because there are more potential forecast outcomes as you head farther out into the future, ensembles become especially useful after Day 4 or 5.
