Prepared for: Natural Resources Canada. Submitted to: Natural Resources Canada. This will require a rapid transition from internal combustion engine ICE vehicles to electric vehicles EVs and other zero-emission vehicles ZEVs , alongside other measures like increasing the use of public transit and active transportation. The government is also developing a strategy and regulations to support its MHDV targets. A key component of these targets will be ensuring sufficient availability of EV charging infrastructure across Canada.
Our study expands on previous studies by updating our methodology, incorporating MHDVs, exploring how EV growth will increase demand on electricity grids, and estimating the capital costs and electrical grid investments needed. Based on the EV Availability Standard and provincial ZEV Sales Mandates, the number of zero-emission LDVs on the road is expected to grow from approximately , today to 5 million by , and eventually reach 21 million in Footnote 2 Under our baseline scenario, this will require about , public charging ports a mix of Level 2 [L2] and direct current fast charging [DCFC] across the country in , or one port for every 31 light-duty EVs Figure ES 1.
This will require the installation of, on average, 40, public ports each year between and , on top of the nearly 30, public ports currently available or planned in Canada. Footnote 3. Most EV charging is done at home, but many Canadians in multifamily housing will be unable to install chargers unless existing buildings are retrofitted and new buildings are required to be EV ready.
Our baseline scenario is a high home charging access scenario where governments and building owners invest in retrofits of 1. Simultaneously, this scenario assumes policy changes that require all new housing to be EV ready starting in This will require a concerted effort by all levels of government to incentivize and require EV ready retrofits through a mix of regulations e.
We assume that battery electric vehicles BEVs will be the predominant technology, based on previous research by the ICCT and other groups. Footnote 4 However, we also model an alternate scenario under which hydrogen costs fall to competitive levels and a portion of the HDV fleet switches from BEVs to hydrogen-fueled ZEVs either fuel cell electric vehicles or hydrogen combustion vehicles , and assess by how much the demand for electric charging would be reduced as a result.
