With Washington focused on the threat to international shipping from Yemen, trouble is brewing on the other side of the Red Sea as well. On Jan. The memorandum has inflamed regional tensions among multiple states in the already volatile Horn of Africa.
At a time when Somalia remains mired in conflict and Ethiopia is battling multiple internal insurgencies in the aftermath of its brutal two-year civil war, the current tensions, if not quickly ameliorated, could exacerbate these conflicts and potentially spawn new ones.
So far, the three countries have offered little assurance that they wish to resolve this row quickly and diplomatically. However, neither Somalia nor Somaliland have the capabilities to take each other head on in a conventional military confrontation. This is doubly true for Somalia if it wishes to challenge Ethiopia militarily over the memorandum.
Instead, there exists a multitude of proxy options that the three sides, including other regional states, could take that appear much more likely of a scenario should this crisis turn bloody. While the current deal with Somaliland avoids this immediate risk, Ethiopia is viewed suspiciously in the Horn of Africa, perhaps no more so than in Somalia, creating a new set of potential conflicts.
But this has not mitigated the escalatory dynamics in the Horn itself. For its part, the Federal Government of Somalia in Mogadishu has vehemently rejected the memorandum , stating that it is a flagrant violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity even though it lacks de facto sovereignty over most of Somaliland. It has also recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia , marking the first stage in a possible deterioration of relations, and recently began denying flight permissions for Ethiopian Airlines to cross Somali airspace.
