This perspective stemmed from intrinsic factors related to the specific characteristics of this confrontation that began in late , and extrinsic factors derived from applying the managerial concept of the change curve to the trajectory of wars in general.
What is the situation one year later? The year has been one of consolidation and structuring of aid, upon which Ukraine is now dependent militarily and economically.
The year will be about the sustainability of the war for Ukraine, a nation now dependent on Western strategic choices that oscillate between mobilization and renunciation. However, after investing so much in Ukraine and making this conflict an illustration of the struggle between democracies and autocracies, can the United States and Europeans afford a setback? Rationality would dictate a negative answer, but the facts are stubborn: all the available evidence indicates a renunciation by default from the West for lack of adequate mobilization.
To discuss this issue, we will contextualize the politico-military situation before exploring the constraints that weigh on the dynamics of the conflict and finally analyzing the resulting political orientations of the various actors.
It is now possible to distinguish two phases of the war in Ukraine: the first one from February 24 to early November and the second one that has since begun.
